Revitalizing India’s Dairy Sector in the Era of Climate Change
Dr. M. Venkata Lakshmi*, Dr. P. Vinayaka Siddartha & Dr. Sohail Ahmed
*Ph.D Scholar, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, DUVASU, Mathura, Uttar Pradesh
Dr. M. Venkata Lakshmi, PhD Scholar, Dept. of VPHE, DUVASU, Mathura; email: sandychinna6311@gmail.com, Mob: +91 630276881
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Abstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to India’s dairy sector, the world’s largest milk producer, contributing about 25% of global milk output. Supported by a vast population of 192.49 million cattle and 109.85 million buffaloes, the sector faces complex challenges as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events adversely affect productivity and animal health. A 1°C increase in maximum temperature can reduce milk yield by 2.4% in cattle and 2.1% in buffaloes, with minimum temperature increases causing even greater declines. Buffaloes are especially vulnerable to heat stress, with summer feed intake reductions of up to 40%. Heat and humidity also reduce milk quality, impacting fat and solids-not-fat content and thereby lowering farmer incomes. Smallholder farmers, who produce over 85% of India’s milk, bear the brunt of these impacts, with projections indicating up to a 25% decline in milk production by 2085, resulting in substantial economic losses. At the same time, the dairy sector contributes significantly to climate change through methane emissions from enteric fermentation, manure management, and feed production, alongside extensive water use and environmental pollution. Methane’s high global warming potential makes reducing emissions imperative. This study highlights climate-smart dairy initiatives in India, such as the National Dairy Development Board’s low-emission livestock projects and NICRA’s climate-resilient technologies. Improved feeding strategies like Total Mixed Ration (TMR) can reduce methane emissions by 20–25% while boosting milk yield by 15%. Climate-resilient fodder, heat stress alerts, and water-saving innovations have also improved production and resource efficiency. In conclusion, India’s dairy sector must adopt integrated, low-carbon, and resilient practices supported by policy, technology, and behavioral change to sustain livelihoods, maintain nutritional security, and reduce environmental impacts. This transition is critical for securing a sustainable and equitable future for millions of smallholder farmers and the broader ecosystem.
Key words: Dairying, Climate vulnerability, Heat stress, Milk yield, Greenhouse gases, Farming
Introduction
Climate is perhaps the most cross-cutting, multidimensional, and intersectoral phenomenon—touching every living or non-living entity, yet often unnoticed. One of the most intrinsically interlinked and affected sectors in this complex web is dairy.
India proudly holds the title of the world’s largest milk producer, contributing around 25% to global milk output (1). This is primarily due to the country’s vast livestock population—192.49 million cattle and 109.85 million buffaloes (2). However, this position also brings unique challenges, particularly in the context of climate change. The dairy sector is not just a victim of climate change but also a contributor to it, creating a feedback loop that is crucial to address for sustainable development and climate adaptation in the country.
Impact of Climate on the Sector
Dairy and climate change share a complex, bidirectional relationship. On one hand, the sector faces increased vulnerability due to rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and frequent extreme weather events. Rising temperatures are among the most direct climatic factors impacting dairy. For instance, an increase of 1°C in average maximum temperature can lead to a reduction in milk yield by 2.4% in cattle and 2.1% in buffaloes (3). Similarly, a 1°C increase in minimum temperature results in yield reductions of 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively. Heat stress affects animal comfort, feed intake, reproductive performance, and disease susceptibility. Notably, heat-stressed animals are more prone to diseases such as mastitis and parasitic infestations (4).
Buffaloes are particularly vulnerable to heat stress due to their black skin and thick dermis, which limit their ability to dissipate heat. During summer, Dry Matter Intake (DMI) in buffaloes can decrease by up to 40% compared to winter months (5). Natural thermoregulatory behaviors such as wallowing become essential. Unfortunately, increasing temperatures and diminishing water resources have reduced the availability of such coping mechanisms. Climate-induced heat and humidity also have a direct impact on milk quality and farmer incomes. The lean period (April to September) in India witnesses significant declines in fat and SNF (Solids-Not-Fat) content. For instance, buffalo milk fat content decreases from 6.6% to 6.0%, and SNF from 9.2% to 8.8%. Similarly, cow milk fat content reduces from 4.5% to 4.0%, and SNF from 8.6% to 8.0% (6). These changes directly affect milk pricing, as procurement systems are based on fat and SNF levels. Lower milk output, reduced quality, and increased disease incidence collectively impact smallholder farmers’ incomes and livelihood sustainability.
Over 85% of milk production in India comes from smallholder farmers (7), who are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In northern plains, where heatwaves are becoming more frequent, the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) often exceeds 80 during summer, significantly affecting livestock health and productivity (8). Climate models predict that by 2085, India may see up to a 25% reduction in milk production due to climate change (9). In states like Gujarat and Haryana, farmers have reported drastic impacts of droughts and temperature stress. In semi-arid South India, field interviews point to drought, pestilence, and heat stress as the top three constraints in livestock farming. Farmers reported reduced fertility, poor fodder and water availability, and declining milk productivity, leading to lower incomes. With every unit increase in THI beyond 72, milk production is estimated to decline by 200 grams/day/animal (10). Projections for 2030 in Northern India alone suggest a milk production loss of 3.4 lakh tons, translating to ₹15,000 crores in economic losses.
Changing climates also shift the epidemiological landscape. Higher temperatures and humidity levels increase susceptibility to diseases like mastitis, and there is potential for the emergence of novel pathogens. The 2022 Lumpy Skin Disease outbreak in India, which affected over 2 million cattle and led to nearly 97,000 animal deaths, serves as a stark example of climate-linked disease emergence (11).
Impact of the Sector on the Climate
India’s dairy sector is a significant contributor to climate change. According to the FAO (2019), the global dairy sector contributes around 4% of anthropogenic GHG emissions (12). In India, the major contributor is enteric fermentation in ruminants, which accounts for over half of total emissions from the agriculture sector (13). Methane—produced during digestion—is 84 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period (14).
Methane and nitrous oxide emissions also arise from manure management, while feed production contributes emissions through the use of synthetic fertilizers and mechanized farming practices. Energy use in milk chilling, storage, and transportation, and water use for animal and fodder requirements also add to the climate footprint. India’s dairy sector consumes 50 billion cubic meters of water annually, mainly for irrigating feed and fodder crops. Ammonia from manure reacts with other pollutants to form particulate matter (PM2.5), posing severe health and environmental risks. The land use change, deforestation, and air and water pollution linked to dairy systems underscore the urgency for transition.
To tackle this climate-dairy conundrum, India needs to promote climate-smart dairying—a low-carbon, resilient, and sustainable dairy model. The National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) has piloted low-emission dairying models in Gujarat. One such initiative—the Climate Resilient Livestock Project—showed that improved feeding practices (e.g., Total Mixed Ration or TMR) could reduce enteric methane emissions by 20–25% while increasing milk yield by 15% per lactation. The National Innovation on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) has demonstrated technologies like early warning alerts for heat stress, climate-resilient fodder varieties (Cenchrus ciliaris, Stylosanthes hamata), and solar-powered water systems. Villages adopting NICRA interventions showed 12–18% increase in milk production and 15–22% water savings. Breed selection policies must favor indigenous breeds like Gir and Sahiwal, which are heat-tolerant and emit less methane compared to crossbreds.
Behavior change, economic incentives, and access to technology at the grassroots level are key enablers. Digital dashboards to monitor disease incidence, water use, and feed availability are being tested. e-Pashuhaat platforms for breed registry and carbon offset schemes can help dairy cooperatives get paid for their environmental performance. In a 2023 pilot project by NABARD and FAO in Maharashtra, dairy collectives using biogas units and silage pits received an average of ₹3,200 per household/year through carbon credits. Each household saved 2.4 tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions per year.
Take Home
India’s dairy sector stands at a crossroads. With over 80 million rural households relying on dairy for livelihood, the sector is not only economically critical but also ecologically impactful. Climate change is already reshaping its contours—challenging age-old practices, affecting livelihoods, and exposing systemic vulnerabilities. The shift to climate-smart dairying is not just a policy aspiration but a strategic necessity. By embracing low-emission practices, supporting resilient breeds, enabling local innovations, and ensuring interdepartmental policy coordination, India can build a dairy system that is resilient, equitable, and sustainable—securing nutritional, environmental, and economic stability for generations to come.
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