When October Turns Tempestuous: Why Odisha Must Stay Alert to Cyclone Montha and Beyond
Dr Simant Kumar Nanda, Bhubaneswar
Every October, as the monsoon retreats and the Bay of Bengal turns unusually warm, the people of Odisha begin to watch the eastern sky with a familiar unease. This year too, the India Meteorological Department has warned of a developing storm, Cyclone Montha, likely to make landfall near Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh around October 28. Though the centre of the storm is expected to strike further south, its heavy clouds and rain bands will sweep into southern and coastal Odisha, bringing intense rainfall, gusty winds and rough sea conditions between October 27 and 29. Districts such as Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Puri have already been placed on alert.
Odisha has known the fury of October cyclones. From the Super Cyclone of 1999, which made landfall on October 29 and claimed over ten thousand lives, to Phailin in 2013, Hudhud in 2014 and Titli in 2018, history shows that this month carries both beauty and danger. The skies are clear, the sea still warm, and the atmosphere provides the perfect condition for the birth of storms. The Bay of Bengal, with its bowl-shaped coastline and shallow waters, acts almost like a cradle for cyclones. Small depressions born near the Andaman Sea can grow swiftly into violent storms, fuelled by warm ocean temperatures and low wind resistance. That is why October and November are known as the post monsoon cyclone season, the most active period for the eastern coast.
Many wonder whether this is a natural pattern or a human creation. The answer lies somewhere in between. Cyclones are natural climatic events, but human activity has deepened their impact. The Bay of Bengal is warming faster than most oceans due to climate change. These warmer waters act as high-energy fuel, helping storms intensify faster. At the same time, the loss of mangroves, sand dunes and wetlands, which act as natural shields, makes our coast more fragile. Rapid urban growth in low-lying areas, unplanned constructions and blocked drainage systems increase flooding risk. So while storms are natural, their destruction is often human-made.
Fortunately, Odisha has transformed from tragedy to preparedness. In 1999, warning systems and communication were limited. By the time Cyclone Phailin arrived in 2013, forecasting and evacuation had improved so much that more than a million people were safely moved to shelters. Deaths dropped drastically, proving how science, technology and awareness can save lives.
The India Meteorological Department now uses multiple global and regional weather models to track storms. Among them, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model have shown the best results for cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. These high-resolution models combine ocean and atmospheric data to predict storm track, intensity and landfall time with great accuracy. For Odisha, IMD’s integrated use of these models, along with real-time satellite and radar inputs, has been a key reason for timely warnings in recent years.
Across the world, Odisha’s vulnerability is often compared with other low-lying deltas such as Bangladesh’s Sundarbans, Myanmar’s Irrawaddy delta and Vietnam’s Mekong delta. All these regions share warm seas, shallow coastal shelves and dense coastal populations that make them equally exposed. However, Odisha stands apart for its effective early-warning systems and its wide network of cyclone shelters built under the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority. Yet, there is no room for complacency. Rapid intensification, where a cyclone strengthens within 24 hours, remains a major forecasting challenge, and many houses and public buildings are still not built to withstand strong winds and tidal surges.
As Cyclone Montha approaches, southern and coastal Odisha should prepare without panic. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea, and residents of low-lying areas must stay ready for temporary evacuation if local authorities advise. People should secure loose items around their houses, keep essential medicines and documents in waterproof bags, and stay tuned to official bulletins and district alerts. If power or communication lines fail, local volunteers and radio updates will be vital. At this time, awareness is as important as technology.
The good news is that Odisha has built one of India’s best disaster-response systems. Its disaster management volunteers, police, fire services and Red Cross teams are already on standby. Schools and community centres are being prepared as temporary shelters, and the state administration is coordinating with the National Disaster Response Force. This level of preparedness has earned Odisha national and international recognition for effective evacuation and resilience planning. What remains crucial is the people’s cooperation, to listen, respond early and help neighbours, especially the elderly, sick and differently-abled.
Every cyclone also reminds us of the need for long-term adaptation: protecting mangroves and coastal forests, maintaining drainage systems, enforcing coastal construction norms and restoring natural sand dunes. These quiet acts of prevention reduce the fury of future storms far more effectively than last-minute rescue efforts.
Cyclones may visit us every October, but they need not destroy us each time. With science, awareness and compassion, Odisha can face the storms with courage and discipline. As the winds gather over the Bay and Cyclone Montha moves toward the shore, let us remember, preparedness is not fear, it is wisdom. The sea may roar, but together, we can keep our homes and hearts safe.
